Analysis
For Portland Notes, please click here.
May 2007
Economics and Peacemaking: Lessons from Northern Ireland
“Economics in Peacemaking: Lessons from Northern
Ireland” investigates the importance of economic factors in the peace process that culminates
next week with the launch of joint Government in Northern Ireland by the Democratic
Unionist Party and Sinn Féin.
The four main economic lessons in the report are:
- Economic disparity was a principal aggravating factor in touching off and sustaining
violence. Together with a series of legislative changes, improved economic conditions helped reduce the gap between Catholic and Protestant unemployment rates from as high as 14% in 1985 to about 3.5% in 2004;
- Public sector financial support by the British government underpinned the economy
through the most difficult periods of the Troubles, although a side effect of subsidies was
to reduce productivity;
- Private sector growth supported by substantial foreign direct investment, from the US in
particular, was a key driver of increased employment and improved living standards.
Business organisations became a key lobby for peace;
- International mediation began around economic issues. Senator George Mitchell, who
eventually chaired the talks that led to the 1998 Agreement, first went to Northern Ireland
as a special economic adviser. Economic discussions became a platform for political
settlement. Read More
September 2005
Financing Palestinian SMEs, Palestine Economic Policy Research Institute (MAS)
This document was prepared by the Palestine Economic Policy Research Institute (MAS) at the request of The Portland Trust. It examines the needs and supply of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) for credit, and how they would be affected by a loan guarantee scheme which reduced the onerous collateral requirements currently restricting their growth. The analysis examines both the demand for, and expected supply of, credit over the short and medium term. [...]
The financing needs of Palestinian SMEs over the short and medium term are substantial: SMEs estimate that their immediate financing needs amount to $647.2 million over the next year. $571m of the immediate financing needs would be in the form of individual credit extensions worth $10,000- $500,000. Based on current economic conditions, SMEs estimate their credit needs over the next five years to be $996m. 95% of the amount required would be in the form of loans over $10,000, amounting to $950m. If closures are eased and the political and economic prospects improve, demand could be substantially higher.
Read more
December 2004
[..] the Portland Trust has responded to a suggestion from the British Government to assess the role which the Palestinian private sector can play in generating growth, sustainable employment and higher living standards. The suggestion arose out of a growing belief that the economic dimension of the conflict deserves as much attention as the political one, since economics play an important role in driving or reducing instability.
This report [...] quantifies a substantial peace dividend and concludes that the Palestinian private sector is capable of playing a major role in creating employment, and achieving a very significant improvement in Palestinian living standards. To do so, it would require relatively small amounts of capital.
Read more
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